13 December 2005
OPINION: BSL versus JDV: The die is cast
WINDOWS
Gabriel L. Cardinoza
IF and when Mayor Benjie Lim fights Speaker Jose De Venecia in the 2007 congressional race as bannered by a local paper, it will certainly be a fight to the finish. Obviously fed up with the unfulfilled commitments of the national government for Dagupan City, Mayor Lim may have finally decided to speak out his mind and chose to confront President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s No. 1 ally.
There was already a near-skirmish between the Mayor and the Speaker in 1998, when the Speaker returned to the district to regain the congressional seat being occupied by Lim at the time. Lim did not budge in the beginning, but in the end, he was prevailed upon to give it up in favor of the Speaker and ran instead for mayor.
Despite the Speaker’s pronouncements that Lim is still “one of my best friends,” everybody knows that from the very beginning, what they had was a shaky political alliance. This became quite obvious during the 2004 presidential elections when Lim was said to be among the late FPJ’s “silent supporters,” having been seen by some local media practitioners in opposition rallies and meetings in the province. Susan Roces, of course, would confirm this in a news conference in Dagupan City when she said that Lim has been an FPJ supporter even before. As everybody also knows by now, the mayor was among the very first incumbent political leaders to ask for GMA’s resignation early this year.
What would again surely decide the impending De Venecia-Lim fight will be Dagupan City. When Lim fought Tessie De Venecia, Lim won only in Dagupan City. But his lead here of about 15,000 votes was more than enough to offset the lead then that De Venecia got in Mangaldan, Manaoag, San Jacinto and San Fabian.
Some self-proclaimed local political analysts, however, predict that in a De Venecia-Lim fight, Dagupan will vote for both of them, which means that they will gain an almost even number of votes in the city. The battleground, therefore, will be in the towns that comprise the district.
We should not forget, however, that Immigration Commissioner Al Fernandez is still very much a factor in the local political equation.
When Lim fought in the 1998 congressional race, the Commissioner, who was the mayor then, was with him, being Lakas’ standard bearer at that time. In 2001,when Lim ran for mayor, the Commissioner, who was the outgoing mayor at that time, also supported him, winning by more than 3,000 votes against a very popular Vice Mayor Teddy Manaois then.
In a De Venecia-Lim scenario, the risk that Lim has to take is that he may be fighting alone. Understandably, the Commissioner will stick it out with the Speaker, both being die-hard GMA supporters. Then, of course, it will be a mid-term election and GMA is the sitting President and the possibility that GMA will get back at him is not at all remote.
But as they say, no one is really sure of any election’s outcome until the last ballot cast has been counted. Certainly, the mayor and his handlers know his strengths and his weaknesses. More than the money, more than a good campaign plan, it will be the candidate’s track record and personal relations with his constituents that will matter most. The De Venecia-Lim fight, if it pushes through, should prove this.
QUICKQUOTE: Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything. -- Josef Stalin
Gabriel L. Cardinoza
IF and when Mayor Benjie Lim fights Speaker Jose De Venecia in the 2007 congressional race as bannered by a local paper, it will certainly be a fight to the finish. Obviously fed up with the unfulfilled commitments of the national government for Dagupan City, Mayor Lim may have finally decided to speak out his mind and chose to confront President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s No. 1 ally.
There was already a near-skirmish between the Mayor and the Speaker in 1998, when the Speaker returned to the district to regain the congressional seat being occupied by Lim at the time. Lim did not budge in the beginning, but in the end, he was prevailed upon to give it up in favor of the Speaker and ran instead for mayor.
Despite the Speaker’s pronouncements that Lim is still “one of my best friends,” everybody knows that from the very beginning, what they had was a shaky political alliance. This became quite obvious during the 2004 presidential elections when Lim was said to be among the late FPJ’s “silent supporters,” having been seen by some local media practitioners in opposition rallies and meetings in the province. Susan Roces, of course, would confirm this in a news conference in Dagupan City when she said that Lim has been an FPJ supporter even before. As everybody also knows by now, the mayor was among the very first incumbent political leaders to ask for GMA’s resignation early this year.
What would again surely decide the impending De Venecia-Lim fight will be Dagupan City. When Lim fought Tessie De Venecia, Lim won only in Dagupan City. But his lead here of about 15,000 votes was more than enough to offset the lead then that De Venecia got in Mangaldan, Manaoag, San Jacinto and San Fabian.
Some self-proclaimed local political analysts, however, predict that in a De Venecia-Lim fight, Dagupan will vote for both of them, which means that they will gain an almost even number of votes in the city. The battleground, therefore, will be in the towns that comprise the district.
We should not forget, however, that Immigration Commissioner Al Fernandez is still very much a factor in the local political equation.
When Lim fought in the 1998 congressional race, the Commissioner, who was the mayor then, was with him, being Lakas’ standard bearer at that time. In 2001,when Lim ran for mayor, the Commissioner, who was the outgoing mayor at that time, also supported him, winning by more than 3,000 votes against a very popular Vice Mayor Teddy Manaois then.
In a De Venecia-Lim scenario, the risk that Lim has to take is that he may be fighting alone. Understandably, the Commissioner will stick it out with the Speaker, both being die-hard GMA supporters. Then, of course, it will be a mid-term election and GMA is the sitting President and the possibility that GMA will get back at him is not at all remote.
But as they say, no one is really sure of any election’s outcome until the last ballot cast has been counted. Certainly, the mayor and his handlers know his strengths and his weaknesses. More than the money, more than a good campaign plan, it will be the candidate’s track record and personal relations with his constituents that will matter most. The De Venecia-Lim fight, if it pushes through, should prove this.
QUICKQUOTE: Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything. -- Josef Stalin
